Duluth Tops the Nation With a 97% Chance of a White Christmas While New York Sits at Just 4% and Dallas, Atlanta and Phoenix Almost Never See One
DULUTH, MINNESOTA — If you want a guaranteed white Christmas, Duluth, Minnesota, might be the place to be. Based on 1991 to 2020 weather station records, the city has had at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on 97% of Christmases.
At the other end of the scale, cities like Dallas, Atlanta, Phoenix and Las Vegas have a 0% historical chance, while Orlando’s odds are so low they are essentially a joke.
How the Odds Were Calculated
The probabilities show how often each city has had 1 inch or more of snow on the ground on December 25, based on 30 years of station records from 1991 to 2020. This is not a forecast for this year.
City-by-City White Christmas Odds
| City | Chance of a White Christmas |
|---|---|
| Duluth, Minnesota | 97% |
| Minneapolis, Minnesota | 80% |
| Fargo, North Dakota | 77% |
| Bismarck, North Dakota | 73% |
| Buffalo, New York | 67% |
| Salt Lake City, Utah | 57% |
| Spokane, Washington | 50% |
| Des Moines, Iowa | 43% |
| Denver, Colorado | 40% |
| Chicago, Illinois | 39% |
| Boise, Idaho | 27% |
| Kansas City, Missouri | 27% |
| Philadelphia, Pennsylvania | 10% |
| Nashville, Tennessee | 5% |
| New York, New York | 4% |
| Albuquerque, New Mexico | 0% |
| Las Vegas, Nevada | 0% |
| Phoenix, Arizona | 0% |
| Dallas, Texas | 0% |
| Atlanta, Georgia | 0% |
| Orlando, Florida | Essentially zero |
Upper Midwest and Northern Plains Lead the Pack
The best odds belong to the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains. Along with Duluth, cities like Minneapolis, Fargo and Bismarck all have better than a 70% chance of snow on Christmas.
Buffalo Leads the Northeast
Thanks to lake-effect snow from Lake Erie, Buffalo has a 67% chance, far higher than most other Eastern cities.
Chicago and Denver Are Basically a Coin Flip
Chicago at 39% and Denver at 40% sit close to a coin flip. Some years bring a snowy holiday, while others stay brown and bare.
Western Cities Show Big Differences
Out West, Salt Lake City comes in at 57% and Spokane at 50%, while Boise drops to 27%. Desert cities like Las Vegas, Phoenix and Albuquerque have no white Christmases in the 30-year record.
Big East Coast Cities Rarely See One
Despite cold winters, New York City has only a 4% chance, and Philadelphia sits at 10%. Warmer ocean air often keeps snow away from the I-95 corridor in late December.
The South Almost Never Gets One
Across most of the South, white Christmases are extremely rare. Dallas and Atlanta sit at 0%, Nashville at just 5%, and Orlando is labeled with a playful “LOL%.”
Will This Year Be Different?
This winter has started slowly, with only about 1.9% of the Lower 48 covered in snow in early November. Cities like Denver and Duluth were still waiting for their first snow. A strong El Niño could also shift winter patterns, making this year less predictable.
Tips for Snow Seekers This Holiday Season
- Head north or to mountain towns for the best odds
- Book flexible travel in case of winter storms
- Check forecasts in the days before Christmas
Stay with Bchssreport.com for the latest updates on this story.
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