Super El Niño Nears Peak as November Outlook Paints Nearly All of the US Warmer Than Normal, With Canada’s Cold Air Supply Running Dry
UNITED STATES — A powerful Super El Niño is expected to reach peak strength within the next three to four weeks across the Pacific, and its fingerprints are already showing up in the temperature outlook for November.
The latest monthly forecast from the NWS Climate Prediction Center shows above-normal temperatures covering nearly the entire United States, with the cold air source in Canada also running unusually warm.
What the November Outlook Shows
The forecast, based on the CFSv2 model with initial conditions from October 13 to October 22, 2026, maps how far temperatures are expected to stray from normal during November.
Here is what stands out:
| Region | November Temperature Outlook |
|---|---|
| Northern Canada | Up to 3 to 4+ K above normal (about 5 to 7+°F) |
| Upper Midwest and Great Lakes | About 2 to 3 K above normal (about 3.6 to 5.4°F) |
| Northeast, Ohio Valley, Southeast | About 1 to 2 K above normal (about 1.8 to 3.6°F) |
| West Coast and parts of the Plains | About 0.5 to 2 K above normal |
| Parts of the Southwest and western Texas | Near normal |
| Mexico | Mostly 0.5 to 2 K above normal |
Canada’s Cold Air Reservoir Looks Warm
The most striking part of the map is Canada. Large areas of northern and central Canada show some of the strongest warm anomalies on the entire chart.
That matters because Canada is usually the source of the cold air that spills into the U.S. during late fall and winter. With that region running so warm, forecasters say cold air will be hard to come by across the Lower 48 in November.
The Great Lakes and Upper Midwest Stand Out
Within the U.S., the darkest warm shades cluster over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, suggesting those areas could see some of the largest temperature departures in the country.
The warmth extends east through the Northeast and south into the Ohio Valley and Southeast, leaving very few areas on the map near or below normal.
Even Warmer Signals for December
The forecaster sharing the outlook said they expect December to look even warmer, as the effects of the strengthening El Niño continue to build.
What a Warm November Could Mean
A milder-than-normal November could bring:
- Fewer early-season cold snaps across much of the country
- Delayed snowfall in areas that typically see it by late fall
- Lower early heating demand for many households
Forecast Still Subject to Change
Monthly outlooks show broad trends, not day-to-day weather. Short cold spells can still happen, but the overall signal points to a warmer than normal November for most of North America.
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