Minnesota, the Rockies and Northern New England Have the Best Odds of a White Christmas While Florida, Texas and Southern California Rarely See One
UNITED STATES — Dreaming of a white Christmas? Your chances depend a lot on where you live. A look at the historical odds of having snow on the ground on Christmas Day shows some parts of the country almost always get one, while others almost never do.
Keep in mind, this is not a forecast for this year. It is based on past climate data.
What Counts as a White Christmas
A white Christmas is typically defined as having at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on December 25. It does not have to be snowing that day.
Historical White Christmas Odds by Region
| Region | Historical Chance of a White Christmas |
|---|---|
| Northern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and Michigan’s Upper Peninsula | Over 75% |
| Colorado Rockies and high mountain areas | Over 75% |
| Interior Maine and northern New England | Over 75% |
| Upstate New York | About 50 to 75% |
| Northern Plains and northern Rockies | About 50 to 75% |
| Central Plains, southern Great Lakes and southern New England | About 25 to 50% |
| Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley | About 5 to 25% |
| Southern Plains and interior Southeast | About 5 to 25% |
| Gulf Coast, Florida, Texas and Southern California | Under 5% |
Best Odds: The Upper Midwest, Rockies and Northern New England
The darkest areas on the map, with more than a 75% chance, include:
- Northern Minnesota, near cities like Marquette and the Upper Peninsula
- High elevations of the Colorado Rockies
- Interior Maine and parts of northern New England
In these places, snow on Christmas morning is the normal, not the exception.
Good Chances Across the Northern Tier
Cities like Minneapolis, Bismarck, Rapid City, Billings and Great Falls fall in the higher probability range, as do parts of Michigan and Upstate New York.
Coin Flip for Many Big Cities
Places like Chicago, Des Moines, Detroit, Denver, Salt Lake City, Boise and Boston sit roughly in the 25 to 50% range. In those cities, a white Christmas happens in some years, but not most.
Slim Chances for the Mid-Atlantic and South
Big East Coast cities like New York and Washington, D.C., along with Kansas City, Louisville, Memphis, Oklahoma City, Little Rock and Albuquerque, have only about a 5 to 25% chance historically.
Almost Never in Florida, Texas and Southern California
The lowest odds, under 5%, cover:
- Florida, including Jacksonville and Tampa
- Texas, including Dallas, Austin and Houston
- The Gulf Coast, including Baton Rouge and Mobile
- Southern California, including Los Angeles and San Diego
- The Desert Southwest, including Phoenix and Las Vegas
Pacific Northwest Has Low Odds Too
Despite their northern location, Seattle and Portland have only about a 5 to 25% chance thanks to the mild Pacific Ocean.
What About This Year?
This winter could look different from normal because of a strong El Niño, which can shift storm tracks and temperatures. Some areas may beat their odds, while others could miss out. Early forecasts show a warm pattern for much of the country over the next couple of weeks.
Tips for Snow Lovers
- Travel north or to the mountains for the best chance
- Check forecasts closer to Christmas
- Plan backup activities if snow does not cooperate
Stay with Bchssreport.com for the latest updates on this story.
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