Arizona, Utah and Southwest Colorado Brace for Numerous Flash Floods Sunday as Near-Record Atmospheric River Moisture Brings 3 Inches of Rain North and East of Phoenix
PHOENIX, ARIZONA — Numerous flash floods are likely on Sunday, November 1, 2026, across Arizona, Utah and southwest Colorado as an atmospheric river carries near-record moisture for this time of year into the Southwest.
Widespread 3-inch rainfall totals are expected north and east of Phoenix, with locally higher amounts, and with ground already soaked, almost all of that rain is expected to run off.
Outlook Details: Sunday, November 1
The excessive rainfall outlook for Sunday was updated at 2:51 a.m. CDT and highlights three levels of risk across the West:
| Risk Level | What It Means |
|---|---|
| Moderate | Numerous flash floods likely, about 40% chance |
| Slight | Scattered flash flooding possible, about 15% chance |
| Marginal | Isolated flash flooding possible, about 5% chance |
Moderate Risk Zone One: From St. George Down to Phoenix
The first Moderate Risk area forms a long arc stretching from near St. George, Utah, south through western and central Arizona down to the Phoenix area.
This is where 3 inches or more of rain could fall, and where numerous flash floods are most likely.
Moderate Risk Zone Two: San Juan Mountains of Southwest Colorado
A second Moderate Risk area sits over southwest Colorado and nearby southeast Utah, centered on the San Juan Mountains.
Forecasters warn that flooding there could rival last week’s flooding, raising concern for communities already hit by recent heavy rain.
Utah Burn Scars Near I-15 and I-70 at High Risk
Burn scars near Interstate 15 and Interstate 70 in Utah are also at high risk. Burned land cannot absorb water well, so heavy rain can quickly send mud, rocks and debris rushing downhill.
Salt Lake City Inside the Flood Risk Area
The Slight Risk zone extends north to include Salt Lake City, meaning scattered flash flooding is possible there as well.
Slight Risk Covers Most of Arizona, Utah and Southern Nevada
Surrounding the moderate zones, a large Slight Risk area covers:
- Most of Arizona
- Much of Utah, including Salt Lake City
- Las Vegas and southern Nevada
- Southwest Colorado and northwest New Mexico
Marginal Risk Reaches Southern California and the Central Plains
A Marginal Risk for isolated flash flooding extends to:
- Los Angeles and San Diego
- Desert areas of southeast California
- Parts of Nevada, western Colorado and nearby areas
- A separate area in the central Plains near Omaha, Nebraska
Why This Storm Is So Dangerous
Several factors make this event especially concerning:
- Near-record moisture for early November
- Widespread 3-inch totals, with locally more
- Saturated ground from recent rain, so most water will run off
- Steep terrain, canyons and burn scars that channel water quickly
Flash Flood Safety Reminders
- Avoid washes, slot canyons and low spots during heavy rain
- Never drive into flooded roads, especially at night
- Stay away from burn scar areas in Utah and Colorado
- Move to higher ground immediately if water rises
- Keep phone alerts on for flash flood warnings
Outlook: Dangerous Flooding Threat Through Sunday
Residents across Arizona, Utah and southwest Colorado should prepare now for a high-impact flood day on Sunday and follow local alerts closely.
Stay with Bchssreport.com for the latest updates on this story.
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