Level 1 Severe Storm Risk Expands to Florida’s Space Coast on Veterans Day, Joining the Lower Ohio and Western Tennessee Valleys as Cold Front Moves Through
NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE — Two separate parts of the country are under a Level 1 (Marginal) risk for severe thunderstorms on Veterans Day, Wednesday, November 11, 2026: the lower Ohio and western Tennessee Valleys, and the east-central Florida Peninsula.
The updated outlook from the NOAA Storm Prediction Center added the Florida risk area, while keeping the threat in place across parts of Indiana, Kentucky and Tennessee.
Outlook Details
| Detail | Information |
|---|---|
| Issued | 10:30 a.m. CST Wednesday, November 11 |
| Valid | 10:30 a.m. CST Wednesday through 6 a.m. CST Thursday, November 12 |
| Forecasters | Mosier and Halbert-K, Storm Prediction Center, Norman, Oklahoma |
| Highest risk | Level 1 (Marginal) |
| Risk areas | Lower Ohio and western Tennessee Valleys, east-central Florida |
Risk Area One: Lower Ohio and Western Tennessee Valleys
The first Marginal Risk zone stretches north to south across the heart of the country, covering parts of:
- Central and southwest Indiana
- Southeast Illinois
- Western Kentucky
- Western and Middle Tennessee, including areas near Nashville
This zone is tied to a cold front moving east through the Midwest and Ohio Valley.
Risk Area Two: East-Central Florida
A second, smaller Marginal Risk covers the east-central Florida Peninsula, including areas around:
- Orlando
- The Space Coast, near Melbourne and Cocoa
- Areas north of Lake Okeechobee
Warm, humid air lingering over Florida could fuel a few stronger storms before cooler air arrives later this week.
What a Level 1 Marginal Risk Means
A Marginal Risk is the lowest of the Storm Prediction Center’s five severe risk levels. It means isolated severe storms are possible, but they are expected to be limited. Possible hazards include:
- Isolated damaging wind gusts
- A brief tornado in the strongest storms
- Heavy downpours
- Frequent lightning
General Thunderstorms Cover a Wider Area
Outside the two marginal zones, general thunderstorms are possible across:
| Region | Areas Included |
|---|---|
| Midwest | Illinois, Indiana and southwest Michigan |
| Ohio Valley | Southwest Ohio and Kentucky |
| Mid-South | Tennessee and northern Alabama and Mississippi |
| Florida | Much of the Florida Peninsula south of Gainesville |
Veterans Day Events Could Be Affected
With storms possible during the day, people attending Veterans Day parades, ceremonies and other outdoor events in the Ohio Valley, Tennessee and Central Florida should keep an eye on the radar and have an indoor backup plan.
Cold Air Follows the Storms
Once the front passes, much colder air will spread across the eastern U.S. That includes mountain snow in the Smokies and Southern Appalachians, lake-effect snow chances in northwest Indiana, and Florida’s first real cold snap of the season this weekend.
Severe Weather Safety Tips
- Keep weather alerts on through Wednesday evening
- Know your safe place in case of a tornado warning
- Head indoors when thunder is heard
- Avoid driving through heavy downpours
- Secure outdoor items before storms arrive
Outlook: Storms Exit, Cold Settles In
Storm chances should end by early Thursday, with cooler, drier air taking over across much of the East heading into the weekend.
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