Central and South Texas Could Pick Up 3 to 5 Inches of Rain Through Monday as Mid-Level Disturbance Brings Drought Relief and Scattered Flash Flooding Risk
SAN ANTONIO, TEXAS — A mid-level disturbance is bringing plentiful rain to central and southern Texas this weekend, with 3 to 5 inches forecast and locally higher amounts possible through Monday, November 9, 2026.
The rain will be welcome across a region dealing with minor drought, but forecasters warn of a risk for scattered flash flooding where storms dump too much rain too fast.
Forecast Window: Saturday Through Monday
The National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center issued its three-day rainfall outlook at 5:11 a.m. EST Saturday, November 7, covering Saturday through Monday.
| Detail | Information |
|---|---|
| Forecast period | Saturday, Nov. 7, through Monday, Nov. 9 |
| Main cause | Mid-level disturbance over Texas |
| Forecast rainfall | 3 to 5 inches, locally higher |
| Flood risk | Scattered flash flooding |
Where the Heaviest Rain Is Expected
| Area | Forecast Rainfall |
|---|---|
| South-central Texas, south of San Antonio | About 4 to 5+ inches |
| San Antonio area | About 3 to 4 inches |
| Coastal Bend and Victoria area | About 2 to 4 inches |
| Corpus Christi area | About 2 to 3 inches |
| Austin and the Hill Country | About 1.5 to 2.5 inches |
| Western Houston area | About 1 to 2 inches |
| East Texas | About 0.5 to 1 inch |
| Far West Texas | Light amounts |
A Bullseye of Heavy Rain in South-Central Texas
The heaviest rain on the forecast map forms a large bullseye across south-central Texas, roughly between San Antonio, the Coastal Bend and areas toward the Rio Grande. In this zone, totals could top 5 inches in spots.
Welcome Relief for Drought-Stricken Areas
Much of central and southern Texas has been in minor drought. This rain could:
- Recharge soil moisture ahead of winter
- Boost stock tanks and small reservoirs
- Help ranchers and farmers with pasture and crops
- Ease fire danger in dry areas
Scattered Flash Flooding Possible
While the rain is needed, some areas may get more than the ground can handle. Flash flooding could develop in:
- Low-water crossings
- Creeks, draws and drainage ditches
- Urban streets in San Antonio and nearby cities
- Low-lying neighborhoods
Why This Storm Is Producing So Much Rain
The mid-level disturbance is lifting moist Gulf air over Texas, causing repeated rounds of rain and storms. When storms keep moving over the same areas, totals can climb quickly.
Part of a Wet Pattern for South Texas
Earlier forecasts had already called for 2 to 4 inches near and north of Laredo, and storms were highlighted for South Texas in Saturday’s thunderstorm outlook. This latest forecast increases rain totals across a wider area.
Flood Safety Reminders
- Turn around, don’t drown at flooded crossings
- Avoid driving at night during heavy rain
- Stay away from rising creeks
- Keep phone alerts on for flash flood warnings
- Have a plan to reach higher ground if water rises
Outlook: Drier Weather Returns Midweek
Rain should taper off after Monday, with drier conditions expected to return by the middle of the week.
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