Florida’s Gulf Coast From Tampa to Fort Myers Could See 10 Inches of Extra Rain This Winter, Putting It on Track for the Second-Wettest Winter on Record
TAMPA, FLORIDA — A new seasonal forecast for December 2026 through February 2027 points to a very wet winter for Florida, especially along the Gulf Coast, where rainfall could run about 10 inches above normal from Tampa to Fort Myers.
If the forecast turns out to be correct, it would rank as the second-wettest winter on record for both the Tampa and Fort Myers areas.
Forecast Window: December Through February
| Detail | Information |
|---|---|
| Forecast period | December 2026, January and February 2027 |
| Forecast issued | November 1, 2026 |
| Type | Seasonal ensemble blend of many model runs |
| Highest projected anomaly | About 12.4 inches above normal |
The forecast is based on a blend of many model members, which helps smooth out individual runs and show the most likely overall pattern.
Tampa and Fort Myers: About 10 Inches Above Normal
The forecast shows rainfall running roughly 10 inches above normal along Florida’s Gulf Coast between Tampa and Fort Myers. That would make this winter the No. 2 wettest on record for both areas if it plays out as projected.
Orlando Could See a Top-4 Wettest Winter
Orlando is also in line for a very wet season. If the forecast is correct, it would rank among the four wettest winters on record for the city.
Projected Winter Rainfall Above Normal
| Area | Projected Rainfall Above Normal |
|---|---|
| Florida Gulf Coast, Tampa to Fort Myers | About 10 inches |
| Central Florida, including Orlando | About 8 to 12 inches |
| Florida Peninsula overall | About 6 to 12 inches |
| Georgia and Carolina coasts | About 4 to 8 inches |
| Inland Gulf states | About 2 to 4 inches |
| Texas Gulf Coast | About 2 to 4 inches |
A Major Turnaround for Drought-Stricken Areas
The forecast is especially notable for the Gulf Coast, where areas from Tampa to Fort Myers are currently in drought, even after recent heavy rain soaked Florida’s east coast.
A wet winter could help refill water supplies, ease drought conditions and restore soil moisture across southwest Florida.
Wetter Pattern Stretches Across the Southeast and Atlantic
The wet signal is not limited to Florida. The forecast also shows above-normal rainfall across:
- The southern Atlantic Coast
- The Bahamas and Cuba
- The Gulf of Mexico
- Parts of the Southeast
Drier Conditions Farther South
In contrast, much of Central America and parts of the Caribbean farther south show below-normal rainfall, highlighting how the storm track is expected to shift north this winter.
El Niño Behind the Wet Winter Outlook
The forecast lines up with a strong El Niño, which often pushes a stronger subtropical jet stream across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida in winter. That pattern typically brings more frequent storms and above-normal rain to the state.
What a Wet Winter Could Mean for Florida
- Drought relief for southwest Florida
- More frequent rainy days and possible localized flooding
- Cooler, cloudier days compared with typical winters
- Possible impacts on winter tourism and outdoor events
Seasonal Forecasts Come With Uncertainty
Long-range forecasts show overall trends, not exact rainfall amounts. Actual totals will depend on individual storms over the coming months.
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