Great Lakes, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Favored for a Warmer-Than-Normal Thanksgiving Week, While the Plains and Mississippi Valley Lean Warmer and Wetter
UNITED STATES — Thanksgiving is now less than two weeks away, and the first look at the holiday week shows much of the country running warmer than usual.
The outlook covers November 20 to 26, 2026, and compares expected conditions to a typical Thanksgiving week.
Thanksgiving Week Outlook at a Glance
| Region | Expected Conditions vs. Normal |
|---|---|
| Great Lakes, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic | Warmer |
| Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, Carolinas and Georgia | Warmer |
| Northern and Central Plains | Warmer and wetter |
| Mississippi Valley and Upper Midwest | Warmer and wetter |
| Gulf Coast states and Florida | Warmer and wetter |
| Texas, Colorado and New Mexico | Wetter |
| California | Wetter |
| Great Basin and Desert Southwest | Toss-up |
| Pacific Northwest coast | Warmer |
Best Odds for Warmth in the East
The strongest signal for above-normal temperatures is over the:
- Great Lakes, including Michigan, Ohio and Indiana
- Northeast, including New York, Pennsylvania and New England
- Mid-Atlantic, including Virginia and Maryland
Warmer-than-normal conditions also extend south into Kentucky, Tennessee, the Carolinas and Georgia.
Plains to the Mississippi Valley: Warmer and Wetter
A wide corridor from the Dakotas and Minnesota south through Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi leans both warmer and wetter than normal. The same pattern stretches east into Alabama and Florida.
That combination could mean mild temperatures but also rain during some of the busiest travel days of the year.
Wetter Signal for Texas, the Southern Rockies and California
A wetter-than-normal pattern is favored across:
- Texas
- Colorado and New Mexico
- Western parts of Kansas, Nebraska and Oklahoma
- California
This fits with forecasts showing a series of storms moving into the West in the coming days.
Toss-Up in the Interior West
Parts of the Great Basin and Desert Southwest, including Nevada, Utah, Arizona, Idaho and western Montana, are labeled a toss-up, meaning there is no clear signal for warmer, colder, wetter or drier conditions.
Storm Uncertainty Right Before Thanksgiving
Forecasters say there is still a lot of uncertainty about a possible storm system right before Thanksgiving. Recent long-range forecasts have shown very different scenarios, including:
- A powerful storm in the central U.S. around November 22 to 24
- Severe storms in the South
- Snow on the colder side of the system
Those details are far from settled.
What This Means for Holiday Travelers
If the outlook holds:
- Travelers in the East may enjoy milder weather
- Drivers and flyers in the Plains and Mississippi Valley could face rain delays
- Mountain travel in the West could be affected by snow
Tips for Thanksgiving Travel Planning
- Keep an eye on the forecast as the holiday gets closer
- Build flexibility into travel plans
- Pack for changing weather, including rain gear
- Check flight status before heading to the airport
Stay with Bchssreport.com for the latest updates on this story.
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