Texas and the South Could Face a Monster Arctic Blast Thanksgiving Week, With Houston, Dallas and Memphis Running 13 to 18 Degrees Below Normal in a New Long-Range Forecast
DALLAS, TEXAS — A new long-range forecast is raising eyebrows by showing a “monster shot” of cold air plunging into the South and central U.S. during Thanksgiving week, with Texas among the hardest-hit areas.
One forecaster said the “stars are aligning” for a major cold outbreak that may last a while, even hinting at a possible Arctic blast that could test the ERCOT power grid in Texas.
Forecast Window: Thanksgiving Week
| Detail | What the Forecast Shows |
|---|---|
| Period | 1 a.m. EST Tuesday, Nov. 24, to 1 a.m. EST Sunday, Nov. 29 |
| Coldest anomalies | Up to 18°F below normal in South Texas |
| Core of the cold | Texas, the Mid-South and Ohio Valley |
| Warmer areas | California coast, Pacific Northwest and New England |
Five-Day Temperature Departures in This Forecast
| City | Below Normal |
|---|---|
| South Texas, west of Houston | 18°F |
| Dallas, Texas | 14°F |
| Shreveport, Louisiana | 14°F |
| Cincinnati, Ohio | 14°F |
| Houston, Texas | 13°F |
| Oklahoma City, Oklahoma | 13°F |
| Memphis, Tennessee | 13°F |
| Nashville, Tennessee | 13°F |
| Jackson, Mississippi | 13°F |
| New Orleans, Louisiana | 13°F |
| St. Louis, Missouri | 11°F |
| Atlanta and Montgomery | 11°F |
| Chicago, Omaha and Topeka | 9°F |
| El Paso, Texas | 9°F |
| Savannah, Georgia | 9°F |
| Amarillo, Raleigh and Jacksonville | 7°F |
| Fargo, Bismarck and Boise | 7°F |
| Minneapolis, Buffalo and Washington, D.C. | 5°F |
| Tampa, Florida | 4°F |
| Miami, Florida | 2°F |
Warmer Than Normal on the Edges
A few areas stay warmer than normal in this forecast, including:
- Los Angeles and San Diego, about 5°F above normal
- Seattle and Portland, about 2°F above normal
- Boston, about 2°F above normal
- Denver, about 2°F above normal
Energy Demand Could Spike
A chart tracking gas-weighted heating demand shows the newest forecast run spiking to about 30 units around November 25 and 26, well above the normal of about 22 units. Earlier forecast runs showed a smaller spike, meaning the cold signal has grown stronger in the latest data.
Higher heating demand can mean:
- More pressure on power grids, including ERCOT in Texas
- Higher natural gas use for heating
- Bigger energy bills for homes and businesses
Why Some Forecasters Think This Could Verify
The forecaster behind the post said there are five to six reasons why this colder outcome could verify somewhat well, after saying a day earlier that forecast data had not looked cold enough.
Mixed Signals for Thanksgiving
This forecast contrasts with a first-look Thanksgiving outlook that showed much of the country running warmer than normal. The difference highlights how uncertain the pattern still is, especially with a possible major storm expected just before the holiday.
How Texans and Southerners Can Prepare
- Check heating systems before the cold arrives
- Protect outdoor pipes and sprinkler systems
- Bring pets and plants indoors
- Stay informed on any power grid alerts
Outlook: Watch the Trend
The cold signal is still more than a week away, so details will change. If it holds, Thanksgiving week could bring a wintry feel to much of the South.
Stay with Bchssreport.com for the latest updates on this story.
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