Pagosa Springs, Colorado Braces for Record-Breaking San Juan River Flood as Forecast Crest Jumps to 19.71 Feet, Topping the 1911 Record
PAGOSA SPRINGS, COLORADO — The San Juan River in Pagosa Springs is now forecast to reach a record-breaking level, after the river forecast was increased overnight to almost 20 feet.
If the forecast holds, the river would rise more than 4 feet higher than during last week’s devastating flooding and break a record that has stood for more than 100 years, dating back to 1911.
River Forecast at a Glance
| Detail | Level |
|---|---|
| Current river level | About 6.6 feet |
| Minor flood stage | 10.5 feet |
| Major flood stage | 12.6 feet |
| Previous record | 17.8 feet (1911) |
| Forecast crest | 19.71 feet |
Forecast Crest Nearly 2 Feet Above the All-Time Record
The forecast crest of 19.71 feet would top the old record of 17.8 feet by nearly 2 feet. It would also sit about 7 feet above major flood stage, putting the river well into historic flood territory.
Rapid Rise Expected as Heavy Rain and Snowmelt Pour In
The river hydrograph shows the water level climbing very quickly from its current level near 6.6 feet, shooting past minor and major flood stage before peaking around Monday, November 2.
That fast rise is driven by the atmospheric river storm dumping heavy rain across the San Juan Mountains, falling on ground already saturated from last week’s storms.
Over 4 Feet Higher Than Last Week’s Devastating Flood
Pagosa Springs is still recovering from severe flooding just last week. This new forecast calls for the river to rise more than 4 feet higher than that event, raising serious concern for homes, businesses, bridges and roads along the river.
River Expected to Fall After the Crest
After peaking, the forecast shows the San Juan River dropping quickly back below major and minor flood stage, then gradually returning to around 6 feet by about November 7. However, damage from a crest this high could last much longer than the water itself.
What Record River Flooding Could Mean for Pagosa Springs
A river level near 20 feet could lead to:
- Widespread flooding of homes and businesses near the river
- Damaged or closed bridges and roads
- Flooding in downtown areas close to the riverbank
- Possible evacuations in low-lying neighborhoods
Part of a Major Flood Event Across the Southwest
This record forecast comes as the San Juan Mountains face Moderate Risk flooding, with forecasters warning of a possible High Risk upgrade. Higher elevations are under Winter Storm Warnings for over 2 feet of snow, while lower areas deal with heavy rain and runoff.
Flood Safety Steps for Residents Near the San Juan River
- Follow evacuation orders immediately if issued
- Move valuables and vehicles to higher ground now
- Never walk or drive through floodwater
- Stay away from riverbanks, which can collapse
- Keep phone alerts on and check local officials for updates
Outlook: Historic Flood Threat Through Monday
With the crest expected around Monday, residents of Pagosa Springs should prepare now for record river flooding and follow guidance from local emergency officials.
Stay with Bchssreport.com for the latest updates on this story.
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