Pennsylvania Snowfall Outlook for 2026-27 Puts Somerset at 70 to 85 Inches and Erie Up to 75 Inches as Strong El Niño Shapes Winter Across the State
PENNSYLVANIA — A new 2026-2027 winter outlook for Pennsylvania shows the heaviest snow piling up in the Laurel Highlands and northwestern snow belt, with Somerset forecast at 70 to 85 inches and Erie at 60 to 75 inches, while Philadelphia and the southeast could see as little as 5 to 20 inches.
The outlook comes as a strong El Niño, described as one of the strongest on record for this time of year, takes charge of the winter pattern.
Snow Season Window: October 1, 2026, Through May 1, 2027
The estimated snowfall totals cover the full snow year, running from October 1, 2026, through May 1, 2027.
The forecast was built by studying every strong El Niño winter since 1957 to see how past seasons played out for snowfall and temperatures across the state.
Laurel Highlands and Northwest Snow Belt Lead Pennsylvania’s Snowfall Totals
The two snowiest pockets on the map are the Laurel Highlands near Somerset and the Lake Erie snow belt in the northwest:
| Town | Estimated Snowfall |
|---|---|
| Somerset | 70 to 85 inches |
| Edinboro | 65 to 80 inches |
| Erie | 60 to 75 inches |
| Meadville | 50 to 65 inches |
| Warren | 50 to 65 inches |
| Johnstown | 40 to 55 inches |
| Oil City | 40 to 55 inches |
Northern Tier and Northeast Pennsylvania: 25 to 55 Inches
Towns across the northern tier and northeast fall into a solid middle range:
| Town | Estimated Snowfall |
|---|---|
| Coudersport | 40 to 55 inches |
| Wellsboro | 40 to 55 inches |
| Montrose | 35 to 50 inches |
| Laporte | 35 to 50 inches |
| Tunkhannock | 30 to 45 inches |
| Honesdale | 30 to 45 inches |
| St. Marys | 30 to 45 inches |
| Towanda | 25 to 40 inches |
| Stroudsburg | 25 to 40 inches |
| Scranton | 20 to 35 inches |
| Milford | 20 to 35 inches |
Western and Central Pennsylvania: Pittsburgh, State College and Altoona
| Town | Estimated Snowfall |
|---|---|
| Indiana | 30 to 45 inches |
| Mercer | 30 to 45 inches |
| Clarion | 25 to 40 inches |
| Punxsutawney | 25 to 40 inches |
| DuBois | 25 to 40 inches |
| Butler | 25 to 40 inches |
| Beaver | 25 to 40 inches |
| Pottsville | 25 to 40 inches |
| Pittsburgh | 20 to 35 inches |
| Greensburg | 20 to 35 inches |
| Clearfield | 20 to 35 inches |
| State College | 20 to 35 inches |
| Altoona | 20 to 35 inches |
| Williamsport | 20 to 35 inches |
| Renovo | 15 to 30 inches |
| Bedford | 15 to 30 inches |
South Central Pennsylvania: Harrisburg, York and Gettysburg
| Town | Estimated Snowfall |
|---|---|
| Harrisburg | 15 to 30 inches |
| Chambersburg | 15 to 30 inches |
| Huntingdon | 10 to 25 inches |
| Lewistown | 10 to 25 inches |
| Defiance | 10 to 25 inches |
| Sunbury | 10 to 25 inches |
| Lebanon | 10 to 25 inches |
| Lancaster | 10 to 25 inches |
| York | 10 to 25 inches |
| Gettysburg | 10 to 25 inches |
| Washington | 10 to 25 inches |
| Uniontown | 10 to 25 inches |
Southeast Pennsylvania and Lehigh Valley: Philadelphia Lowest at 5 to 20 Inches
| Town | Estimated Snowfall |
|---|---|
| Easton | 20 to 35 inches |
| Allentown | 15 to 30 inches |
| Reading | 15 to 30 inches |
| Doylestown | 10 to 25 inches |
| Norristown | 5 to 20 inches |
| West Chester | 5 to 20 inches |
| Philadelphia | 5 to 20 inches |
Strong El Niño Expected to Influence Snow, Temperatures and Heating Bills
The outlook looks at how the strong El Niño could affect much more than snow, including winter temperatures, home heating bills and the ski season across Pennsylvania.
Big Storm Window Still on the Table for Snow Lovers
Even with lower totals expected in parts of the southeast, the outlook encourages snow lovers not to give up. The full forecast highlights a window to watch for a big storm this winter.
Winter Outlook: What Pennsylvania Residents Should Watch
Seasonal outlooks show broad trends, and individual storms can change totals quickly. Residents should follow local forecasts through the winter, especially in high-snow areas like Somerset, Erie and the northern tier.
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