Great Smoky Mountains Peaks Have Near 100% Odds of Measurable Snow This Weekend, While Knoxville and Chattanooga Stay Close to Zero
KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE — If you want to see snow in East Tennessee this weekend, you will need to head up high. New ensemble forecast odds show any snow at all is basically a lock across the high peaks of the Great Smoky Mountains, while the chance of even an inch in the valley, including Knoxville, is near zero.
Forecasters stress that these odds are not an official forecast, but they offer a helpful look at who is most likely to see snow.
How the Odds Were Calculated
The probabilities come from 81 forecast model runs covering November 11 to 14, 2026. Each number shows the percentage of runs that produced snow at a given location.
Chance of Any Snow
| Location | Chance of at Least a Dusting |
|---|---|
| Smokies peaks, including Mt. Le Conte, Newfound Gap and Clingmans Dome | 100% |
| Cades Cove and Elkmont | 100% |
| Roan Mountain | 99.8% |
| Newport | 91.8% |
| Rogersville | 87.2% |
| Tri-Cities | 76.6% |
| Greeneville | 71.5% |
| Pigeon Forge | 55.5% |
| Maryville | 36.0% |
| Knoxville | 27.5% |
| Oak Ridge | 12.8% |
| Lenoir City | 8.0% |
| Chattanooga and Cleveland | 0% |
Chance of 1 Inch or More
| Location | Chance of 1+ Inch |
|---|---|
| Mt. Cammerer, Mt. Guyot and Charlies Bunion | 100% |
| Newfound Gap | 99.9% |
| Mt. Le Conte | 99.1% |
| Clingmans Dome and Thunderhead Mountain | 98.8% |
| Roan Mountain | 93.4% |
| Newport | 69.3% |
| Elkmont | 68.6% |
| Gregory Bald | 66.8% |
| Cades Cove | 65.2% |
| Pigeon Forge | 41.1% |
| Tri-Cities | 36.6% |
| Greeneville | 25.7% |
| Maryville | 2.0% |
| Knoxville | 0% |
Chance of 2 Inches or More
| Location | Chance of 2+ Inches |
|---|---|
| Mt. Guyot | 98.2% |
| Charlies Bunion | 95.7% |
| Mt. Cammerer | 94.6% |
| Newfound Gap | 82.2% |
| Mt. Le Conte | 75.9% |
| Clingmans Dome | 66.6% |
| Roan Mountain | 57.9% |
| Thunderhead Mountain | 52.9% |
| Elkmont | 29.7% |
| Tri-Cities | 17.7% |
| Pigeon Forge | 13.4% |
| Newport | 8.7% |
| Knoxville | 0% |
High Ridges Are the Sure Bet
At least 1 inch of snow is a very good bet across the high country, with odds of 99% at Mt. Le Conte and Newfound Gap. Two inches or more remains likely on the highest ridges near Mt. Guyot, Charlies Bunion and Mt. Cammerer.
Northeast Tennessee Has a Shot at Flakes
Towns in Northeast Tennessee, including Newport, Rogersville, Greeneville and the Tri-Cities, have good odds of seeing flakes, though accumulations of an inch or more are less certain.
Valleys Mostly Miss Out
Down in the Tennessee Valley, the odds drop sharply. Knoxville has about a 27.5% chance of a dusting but essentially no chance of an inch. Chattanooga and Cleveland show 0% for any snow.
Travel Tips for the Smokies
- Check road status for Newfound Gap Road before heading out
- Expect slick spots at higher elevations
- Carry warm layers and emergency supplies
Stay with Bchssreport.com for the latest updates on this story.
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