Butler County High School Sports Report

PLAYOFF SCENARIOS: Area squads looking for life past Week 10

Joel Sackenheim

FAIRFIELD INDIANS (9-0)

Fairfield has clinched a playoff berth and a home game.

Fairfield clinches the #1 seed with a win over Colerain.

If Fairfield loses to Colerain, Fairfield can still clinch the #1 seed by staying ahead of Colerain, St. Xavier, and Elder.

OUTLOOK: Fairfield controls the board for now.  Things only really get interesting for the #1 seed if Colerain beats Fairfield.

LAKOTA WEST FIREBIRDS (7-2)

Lakota West has clinched a playoff berth and will start on the road as either the 5th seed or the 6th seed.

Lakota West cannot get a home game, no matter what happens in Week Ten.

Lakota West can clinch the #5 seed with any of the following scenarios:

OUTLOOK: With the Top 4 seeds so far ahead of the rest of the pack, and able to finish in any order, there is very little difference for West in being the 5-seed or being the 6-seed.

HAMILTON BIG BLUE (5-4)

Hamilton cannot get a home game, no matter what happens in Week Ten.

Hamilton clinches a playoff berth (starting on the road) with ANY of the following:

OUTLOOK: Regardless of what happens in the East-Hamilton game, when all you need is a 6-3 Anderson team who is fighting for their lives to knock off 0-9 Loveland, Big Blue fans have to feel pretty good about their chances.

LAKOTA EAST THUNDERHAWKS (4-5)

Lakota East cannot get a home game, no matter what happens in Week Ten.  Lakota East cannot qualify for the playoffs if they lose to Hamilton.

A Sycamore win over Oak Hills eliminates Lakota East.  All pathways into the playoffs involve an Oak Hills win.*

If Mason beats Princeton (with Lakota East and Oak Hills wins), then the ONLY way into the playoffs for Lakota East ALL THREE:

If Princeton beats Mason (with Lakota East and Oak Hills wins), then Lakota East can clinch a playoff spot with any of the following combinations:

*PROOF: Lakota East needs six wins by Lakota East, Oak Hills, Loveland, Mason, Kettering Fairmont, and Kings to finish ahead of Hamilton.  If they don’t get ALL SIX, they will finish below Hamilton.  An Oak Hills loss guarantees that Hamilton finishes above Lakota East.  That means that 7 teams are locked in above Lakota East, with only one more playoff spot available.  Sycamore’s win over Oak Hills gives them very little in terms of points and leaves Lak East at 8th, with Sycamore 9th, 3 second-level points behind.  Lak East still could get points with Kett Fairmont (6.5), Mason (6.5), and Middletown (6.5).  Sycamore still could get points from Kings (6.5), Loveland (6.0), Middletown (6.5), and Princeton (6.5).  Middletown cancels out.  A Mason win would eliminate Lakota East, and so Lak East MUST concede the 6.5 points to Sycamore for a Princeton win.  Therefore, Lak East MUST get Kettering Fairmont to reclaim the lead and cancel it out.  In order to stay above Sycamore, Kings and Loveland MUST lose.  But by Kings losing, it gives West Clermont the 37.0 second-level points required to hurdle BOTH Sycamore and Lakota East, eliminating them both.

OUTLOOK: Oak Hills has lost 15 straight games, dating back to last year.  Not good for Lakota East to HAVE to have that result.  But if Oak Hills somehow springs the upset, the Mason loss-West Clermont loss-Anderson win combo might be attainable.  But East needs Oak Hills to win first.

TALAWANDA BRAVE (7-2)

Talawanda cannot get a home game, no matter what happens in Week Ten.  Talawanda MUST beat Ross and then get help to grab a playoff spot.

Talawanda can clinch a playoff spot if they can hurdle THREE of the following five teams: Walnut Ridge, Canal Winchester, Winton Woods, Anderson, Little Miami.  A total of 32 games will be in play to decide Talawanda’s fate.

IF Talawanda beats Ross…

TALAWANDA (Continued)…

OUTLOOK: This would make a very good 5th grade math worksheet.  Make a chart with four sets of two columns (TAL vs. WAL RIDGE, TAL vs. CANAL WIN, TAL vs. AND, TAL vs. WINT WDS), and then start adding things up.  Bring it to the stadium on Friday night if you like.  It’s like having a copy of our home game.

Canal Winchester, Walnut Ridge, and Little Miami are the gatekeepers.  Three doors are available to walk through, but a Canal Winchester win locks one of them, and a Walnut Ridge win locks another.  A Little Miami win forces Talawanda to pull off a complete seven-pack of results, and even then, they’ll have to second-level-points-muscle their way past Anderson and Winton Woods.  The best case scenario for Talawanda is each loss by one of the gatekeepers; each loss opens a door that gives Talawanda one more chance to break through.  

BADIN RAMS (6-3)

Badin can clinch a playoff berth in any of the following ways:

Badin can still earn a home playoff game by finishing in the Top 4.  There are TWO spots that could open up, if Wapakoneta or Trotwood-Madison were to lose.

For Badin to grab Wapakoneta’s home playoff spot, Badin would need ALL of the following:

        –AND–

BADIN (Continued)…

For Badin to grab Trotwood-Madison’s home playoff spot, Badin would need the following:

Badin can also get a home playoff game with a LOSS, if ALL of the following occur:

OUTLOOK: While Badin fans would love to simply exhale when they punch their ticket, the home game scenario is NOT out of the question.  It looks like a lot of results required, but if you look closer, many of them are very likely bets.  The Trotwood-Madison loss scenario would put a home game in play, where Mama Bird hovers over the nest and drops a worm into a wide open mouth of either Ross, Badin, and St. Mary’s Memorial.  They’ll all have their mouths open; which one does the worm fall into?  Anybody’s guess.

ROSS RAMS (7-2)

Ross can clinch a playoff berth with a win.

If Ross loses to Talawanda, Ross can still clinch a playoff berth by finishing in front of THREE of the following teams: Badin, Hughes, Greenville, Alter, Goshen

IF Ross loses to Talawanda,

ROSS (Continued)…

Ross can still earn a home playoff game by finishing in the Top 4.  There are TWO spots that could open up, if Wapakoneta or Trotwood-Madison were to lose.

For Ross to grab Wapakoneta’s home playoff spot, Ross would need the following:

For Ross to grab Trotwood-Madison’s home playoff spot, Ross would need the following:

Ross cannot earn a home playoff game if they lose to Talawanda.

OUTLOOK: Ross-with-a-loss is definitely in a lot more perilous shape than Badin-with-a-loss.  Beat Talawanda, and then see if the Trotwood scenario plays out.  Maybe Santa Claus comes down the chimney and leaves an unexpected home game in your stocking.  But IF Talawanda should beat you, it may well come down to whether you can get Sidney to beat Greenville.  C-J will be heavy favorites to beat Alter, and vanquishing Goshen looks like a piece of cake, with so many options, many of whom are big favorites.  But the four-out-of seven combo if Greenville wins…Badin and Xenia are good bets.  Thurgood Marshall plays 1-8 Ponitz Tech.  But where does that 4th one come from?  Dixie?  Monroe?  Northwest?  Western Brown?  You’re going to need one of those.

MADISON MOHAWKS (5-4)

Madison cannot get a home game, no matter what happens in Week Ten.  Madison MUST beat Waynesville and then get help to grab a playoff spot.

For Madison to clinch a playoff berth, Madison needs to beat Waynesville and need to finish ahead of TWO of the following teams: Summit Country Day, Blanchester, Greenon

IF Madison beats Waynesville…

OUTLOOK: The loss to Monroe last week didn’t kill Madison; it was only worth 5.0 points.  Harbin points reward you for who you beat, not punish you for who you lost to.  Madison knew all along they’d need the Waynesville game.  The Top 5 in the region are uncatchable.  The Madeira-Mariemont winner will also be uncatchable, though the loser will be bypassed.  The simplest path in is Madison win + Greenon loss + Blanchester loss, but both Greenon and Blanchester have slightly better records than their opponents.  Summit plays 8-1 Roger Bacon, and so a loss there is very possible.  Something tells me we’ll be counting second-level points deep into the night on this one.

NEW MIAMI VIKINGS (8-0)

New Miami has clinched a playoff berth and a home game.

New Miami clinches the #1 seed with a win over Lockland.

New Miami can still clinch the #1 seed with a loss, if they stay ahead of Fort Loramie, Marion Local, and New Bremen

IF New Miami loses to Lockland…

OUTLOOK: If New Miami beats Lockland to clinch the #1 seed, New Miami should root for Marion Local to beat Coldwater IF the Vikings want to set up a bracket with Fort Loramie and Marion Local on the other side (#’s 2 and 3).  A Marion Local loss + CCPA win would put CCPA on the 3-line and place Marion Local in New Miami’s top half of the bracket.

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