Football

PLAYOFF SCENARIOS: Area squads looking for life past Week 10

Area squads are looking for life past Week 10. AJ FULLAM/6SPhoto.com

FAIRFIELD INDIANS (9-0)

Fairfield has clinched a playoff berth and a home game.

Fairfield clinches the #1 seed with a win over Colerain.

If Fairfield loses to Colerain, Fairfield can still clinch the #1 seed by staying ahead of Colerain, St. Xavier, and Elder.

  • Fairfield would stay ahead of Colerain with any ONE of the following:
  • Centerville win
  • Clayton Northmont win
  • Lakota West win
  • Princeton win
  • Springfield win
  • Fairfield would stay ahead of St. Xavier with a St. Xavier loss –OR– if Fairfield maintains their 12.5 point lead in second-level points.
  • Fairfield could add to their lead with wins by Centerville (6.5), Princeton (6.5), and Springfield (5.5)
  • St. Xavier could chip into that lead with wins by Brownsburg IN (6.5), Football North (5.5), Indianapolis Cathedral (6.0), Moeller (3.5), Penn IN (6.5), and St. Ignatius (5.5)
  • Fairfield would stay ahead of Elder with an Elder loss –OR– if Fairfield maintains their 1 point lead in second-level points.
  • Fairfield could add to their lead with wins by Centerville (6.5), Princeton (6.5), and Springfield (5.5)
  • Elder could chip into that lead with wins by Clearwater International Academy FL (3.5), Football North (5.5), Gahanna-Lincoln (6.5), Indianapolis Cathedral (6.0), Moeller (3.5), and St. Xavier OH (6.5)

OUTLOOK: Fairfield controls the board for now.  Things only really get interesting for the #1 seed if Colerain beats Fairfield.

LAKOTA WEST FIREBIRDS (7-2)

Lakota West has clinched a playoff berth and will start on the road as either the 5th seed or the 6th seed.

Lakota West cannot get a home game, no matter what happens in Week Ten.

Lakota West can clinch the #5 seed with any of the following scenarios:

  • Princeton loss to Mason
  • Lakota West win  + any TWO of the following:
  • Centerville win
  • Hamilton win
  • Sycamore win
  • Turpin win
  • Walnut Hills win
  • Any FOUR of the following:
  • Centerville win
  • Hamilton win
  • Sycamore win
  • Turpin win
  • Walnut Hills win

OUTLOOK: With the Top 4 seeds so far ahead of the rest of the pack, and able to finish in any order, there is very little difference for West in being the 5-seed or being the 6-seed.

HAMILTON BIG BLUE (5-4)

Hamilton cannot get a home game, no matter what happens in Week Ten.

Hamilton clinches a playoff berth (starting on the road) with ANY of the following:

  • Hamilton win over Lakota East
  • Princeton win over Mason
  • Anderson win over Loveland
  • Kings win + Lebanon win
  • Kings win + Sycamore win
  • Middletown win + Turpin win + Lebanon win
  • Middletown win + Turpin win + Sycamore win
  • Middletown win + Turpin win + West Clermont win

OUTLOOK: Regardless of what happens in the East-Hamilton game, when all you need is a 6-3 Anderson team who is fighting for their lives to knock off 0-9 Loveland, Big Blue fans have to feel pretty good about their chances.

LAKOTA EAST THUNDERHAWKS (4-5)

Lakota East cannot get a home game, no matter what happens in Week Ten.  Lakota East cannot qualify for the playoffs if they lose to Hamilton.

A Sycamore win over Oak Hills eliminates Lakota East.  All pathways into the playoffs involve an Oak Hills win.*

If Mason beats Princeton (with Lakota East and Oak Hills wins), then the ONLY way into the playoffs for Lakota East ALL THREE:

  • Kettering Fairmont beats Lebanon
  • Kings beats West Clermont
  • Loveland beats Anderson

If Princeton beats Mason (with Lakota East and Oak Hills wins), then Lakota East can clinch a playoff spot with any of the following combinations:

  • West Clermont loss + Kettering Fairmont win
  • West Clermont loss + Anderson win
  • Anderson win + Kettering Fairmont win + Middletown win + Turpin win

*PROOF: Lakota East needs six wins by Lakota East, Oak Hills, Loveland, Mason, Kettering Fairmont, and Kings to finish ahead of Hamilton.  If they don’t get ALL SIX, they will finish below Hamilton.  An Oak Hills loss guarantees that Hamilton finishes above Lakota East.  That means that 7 teams are locked in above Lakota East, with only one more playoff spot available.  Sycamore’s win over Oak Hills gives them very little in terms of points and leaves Lak East at 8th, with Sycamore 9th, 3 second-level points behind.  Lak East still could get points with Kett Fairmont (6.5), Mason (6.5), and Middletown (6.5).  Sycamore still could get points from Kings (6.5), Loveland (6.0), Middletown (6.5), and Princeton (6.5).  Middletown cancels out.  A Mason win would eliminate Lakota East, and so Lak East MUST concede the 6.5 points to Sycamore for a Princeton win.  Therefore, Lak East MUST get Kettering Fairmont to reclaim the lead and cancel it out.  In order to stay above Sycamore, Kings and Loveland MUST lose.  But by Kings losing, it gives West Clermont the 37.0 second-level points required to hurdle BOTH Sycamore and Lakota East, eliminating them both.

OUTLOOK: Oak Hills has lost 15 straight games, dating back to last year.  Not good for Lakota East to HAVE to have that result.  But if Oak Hills somehow springs the upset, the Mason loss-West Clermont loss-Anderson win combo might be attainable.  But East needs Oak Hills to win first.

TALAWANDA BRAVE (7-2)

Talawanda cannot get a home game, no matter what happens in Week Ten.  Talawanda MUST beat Ross and then get help to grab a playoff spot.

Talawanda can clinch a playoff spot if they can hurdle THREE of the following five teams: Walnut Ridge, Canal Winchester, Winton Woods, Anderson, Little Miami.  A total of 32 games will be in play to decide Talawanda’s fate.

IF Talawanda beats Ross…

  • Talawanda can hurdle Walnut Ridge with a Walnut Ridge loss –AND– overcoming an 11 point deficit in second-level points.
  • Talawanda cuts into the lead with wins by Badin (5.0), Eaton (4.0), New Richmond (5.5), Northwest (6.0), Preble Shawnee (5.0), and Mount Healthy (0.5)
  • Walnut Ridge adds to their lead with wins by Beechcroft (6.0), Mifflin (6.0), Watkins Memorial (5.5), Marion-Franklin (0.5), and Africentric (1.5)
  • Talawanda can hurdle Canal Winchester with a Canal Winchester loss –AND– overcoming a 9.5 point deficit in second-level points.
  • Talawanda cuts into the lead with wins by Badin (5.0), Eaton (4.0), New Richmond (5.5), Northwest (6.0), Preble Shawnee (5.0), and Mount Healthy (0.5)
  • Canal Winchester adds to their lead with wins by Grove City (6.5), New Albany (6.5), Teays Valley (5.0), Westerville North (6.5), Franklin Heights (0.5), and Olentangy Berlin (0.5)
  • Talawanda can hurdle Winton Woods by overcoming a 12.6111 point deficit in second-level points.  (NOTE: because Winton Woods only plays a 9-game schedule this year, all second-level points are worth 10/9’s of what Talawanda’s are.  That mathematical calculation has been made here in advance to save you the trouble.)
  • Talawanda cuts into the lead with wins by Badin (5.0), Eaton (4.0), New Richmond (5.5), Northwest (6.0), Preble Shawnee (5.0), and Mount Healthy (0.5)
  • Winton Woods adds to their lead with wins by Edgewood (6.111), La Salle (7.222), Moeller (3.888), Trotwood-Madison (7.222), Upper Arlington (7.222), and West Clermont (6.666)

TALAWANDA (Continued)…

  • Talawanda can hurdle Anderson by overcoming a 3.5 point deficit in second-level points.  (NOTE: If Anderson loses to Loveland, then subtract 6 points from Anderson’s tally, giving Talawanda a 2.5 point lead.)
  • Talawanda cuts into the lead with wins by Badin (5.0), Eaton (4.0), New Richmond (5.5), Northwest (6.0), Preble Shawnee (5.0), and Mount Healthy (0.5)
  • Anderson adds to their lead with wins by Milford (6.0), Simon Kenton KY (6.5), Kings (0.5), and Withrow (0.5)
  • Talawanda can hurdle Little Miami by a Little Miami loss –OR– ALL SEVEN of the following:
  • Badin win
  • Batavia win
  • Eaton win
  • Mount Healthy win
  • New Richmond win
  • Preble Shawnee win
  • Stebbins win

OUTLOOK: This would make a very good 5th grade math worksheet.  Make a chart with four sets of two columns (TAL vs. WAL RIDGE, TAL vs. CANAL WIN, TAL vs. AND, TAL vs. WINT WDS), and then start adding things up.  Bring it to the stadium on Friday night if you like.  It’s like having a copy of our home game.

Canal Winchester, Walnut Ridge, and Little Miami are the gatekeepers.  Three doors are available to walk through, but a Canal Winchester win locks one of them, and a Walnut Ridge win locks another.  A Little Miami win forces Talawanda to pull off a complete seven-pack of results, and even then, they’ll have to second-level-points-muscle their way past Anderson and Winton Woods.  The best case scenario for Talawanda is each loss by one of the gatekeepers; each loss opens a door that gives Talawanda one more chance to break through.  

BADIN RAMS (6-3)

Badin can clinch a playoff berth in any of the following ways:

  • Badin win over McNicholas
  • C-J win over Alter
  • Talawanda win over Ross
  • Western Hills win over Hughes
  • St. Mary’s Memorial loss + any THREE of the following:
  • Edgewood win
  • Greenville win
  • Purcell Marian win
  • Roger Bacon win
  • Belfry KY loss + Kettering Fairmont loss + Purcell Marian win
  • Belfry KY loss + Kettering Fairmont loss + Roger Bacon win
  • Kettering Fairmont loss + Edgewood win
  • Kettering Fairmont loss + Purcell Marian win + Roger Bacon win
  • Belfry KY loss + Edgewood win + Purcell Marian win
  • Belfry KY loss + Edgewood win + Roger Bacon win
  • Belfry KY loss + Purcell Marian win + Roger Bacon win
  • Edgewood win + Purcell Marian win + Roger Bacon win

Badin can still earn a home playoff game by finishing in the Top 4.  There are TWO spots that could open up, if Wapakoneta or Trotwood-Madison were to lose.

For Badin to grab Wapakoneta’s home playoff spot, Badin would need ALL of the following:

  • Badin win over McNicholas
  • Ottawa-Glandorf win over Wapakoneta
  • Alter win over C-J
  • Edgewood win over Mount Healthy
  • Kenton win over Elida
  • Purcell Marian win over Norwood
  • Roger Bacon win over Summit Country Day
  • Tecumseh win over Bellefontaine

        –AND–

  • Any ONE of the following:
  • Talawanda win over Ross
  • 2 losses from Monroe, Northwest, Thurgood Marshall, and Western Brown

BADIN (Continued)…

For Badin to grab Trotwood-Madison’s home playoff spot, Badin would need the following:

  • Badin win over McNicholas
  • Springfield win over Trotwood-Madison
  • Any ONE of the following:
  • Alter win
  • Edgewood win
  • Moeller win
  • Purcell Marian win
  • Roger Bacon win
  • Talawanda win over Ross –OR– get SIX of the following:
  • Alter win
  • Batavia win
  • Bellbrook win
  • Edgewood win
  • Harrison win
  • Ponitz Tech win
  • Purcell Marian win
  • Roger Bacon win
  • Defiance win over St. Mary’s Memorial –OR– Badin makes up 8 point deficit in second-level points to St. Mary’s Memorial
  • Badin cuts into the lead with wins by Alter (5.5), Edgewood (5.5), Purcell Marian (5.0), and Roger Bacon (4.5)
  • St. Mary’s Memorial adds to their lead with wins by Sidney (5.5), Bath (1.0), Kenton (0.5), and Van Wert (0.5)

Badin can also get a home playoff game with a LOSS, if ALL of the following occur:

  • McNicholas win over Badin
  • Springfield win over Trotwood-Madison
  • Defiance win over St. Mary’s Memorial
  • Talawanda win over Ross
  • Alter win over C-J
  • Edgewood win over Mount Healthy
  • Moeller win over RICC Canada Prep
  • Purcell Marian win over Norwood
  • Roger Bacon win over Summit Country Day

OUTLOOK: While Badin fans would love to simply exhale when they punch their ticket, the home game scenario is NOT out of the question.  It looks like a lot of results required, but if you look closer, many of them are very likely bets.  The Trotwood-Madison loss scenario would put a home game in play, where Mama Bird hovers over the nest and drops a worm into a wide open mouth of either Ross, Badin, and St. Mary’s Memorial.  They’ll all have their mouths open; which one does the worm fall into?  Anybody’s guess.

ROSS RAMS (7-2)

Ross can clinch a playoff berth with a win.

If Ross loses to Talawanda, Ross can still clinch a playoff berth by finishing in front of THREE of the following teams: Badin, Hughes, Greenville, Alter, Goshen

IF Ross loses to Talawanda,

  • Ross finishes ahead of Badin with ALL of the following:
  • McNicholas beats Badin
  • C-J beats Alter
  • Monroe beats Bellbrook
  • Mount Healthy beats Edgewood
  • Northwest beats Harrison
  • Norwood beats Purcell Marian
  • Thurgood Marshall beats Ponitz Tech
  • Summit Country Day beats Roger Bacon
  • Western Brown beats Batavia
  • Ross finishes ahead of Hughes with a Hughes loss –AND– overcoming a 7.5-point deficit in second-level points
  • Ross cuts into the lead with wins by Badin (5.0), Monroe (5.5), Northwest (6.0), Thurgood Marshall (5.0), Western Brown (5.0), and Mount Healthy (0.5)
  • Hughes adds to the lead with wins by Aiken (4.5), Hillcrest Academy (3.5), Lockland (3.5), North College Hill (3.5), and Shroder Paideia (0.5)
  • Ross finishes ahead of Greenville with a Greenville loss –OR– any FOUR of the following:
  • Badin win
  • Dixie win
  • Monroe win
  • Northwest win
  • Thurgood Marshall win
  • Western Brown win
  • Xenia win

ROSS (Continued)…

  • Ross finishes ahead of Alter with any ONE of the following:
  • Alter loss
  • Kettering Fairmont loss + Belfry KY loss + Badin win + Monroe win + Northwest win + Thurgood Marshall win + Western Brown win
  • Kettering Fairmont loss + McNicholas loss + Badin win + Monroe win + Northwest win + Thurgood Marshall win + Western Brown win
  • Kettering Fairmont loss + Belfry KY loss + McNicholas loss + Badin win + Monroe win + Mount Healthy win + Thurgood Marshall win + Western Brown win
  • Kettering Fairmont loss + Belfry KY loss + McNicholas loss + Northwest win + any THREE wins from Badin, Monroe, Thurgood Marshall, and Western Brown
  • Ross finishes ahead of Goshen with any ONE of the following:
  • Goshen loss
  • Badin win
  • Clinton-Massie win
  • East Clinton win
  • McClain win
  • Monroe win
  • Northwest win
  • Purcell Marian win
  • Thurgood Marshall win
  • Western Brown win

Ross can still earn a home playoff game by finishing in the Top 4.  There are TWO spots that could open up, if Wapakoneta or Trotwood-Madison were to lose.

For Ross to grab Wapakoneta’s home playoff spot, Ross would need the following:

  • Ross win over Talawanda
  • Ottawa-Glandorf win over Wapakoneta
  • Ross overcomes Wapak’s 14 point lead in second-level points
  • Ross cuts into the lead with wins by Badin (5.0), Monroe (5.5), Northwest (6.0), Thurgood Marshall (5.0), Western Brown (5.0), and Mount Healthy (0.5)
  • Wapak adds to their lead with wins by Bellefontaine (6.0), Elida (5.0), Bath (1.0), and Van Wert (0.5)
  • Badin loss –OR– any THREE of the following:
  • C-J win
  • Monroe win
  • Mount Healthy win
  • Northwest win
  • Norwood win
  • Summit Country Day win
  • Thurgood Marshall win
  • Western Brown win

For Ross to grab Trotwood-Madison’s home playoff spot, Ross would need the following:

  • Ross win over Talawanda
  • Springfield win over Trotwood-Madison
  • Badin loss –OR– any THREE of the following:
  • C-J win
  • Monroe win
  • Mount Healthy win
  • Northwest win
  • Norwood win
  • Summit Country Day win
  • Thurgood Marshall win
  • Western Brown win
  • St. Mary’s Memorial loss –OR– Ross overcomes St. Mary’s Memorial’s 5 point lead in second-level points
  • Ross cuts into the lead with wins by Badin (5.0), Monroe (5.5), Northwest (6.0), Thurgood Marshall (5.0), Western Brown (5.0), and Mount Healthy (0.5)
  • St. Mary’s Memorial adds to their lead with wins by Sidney (5.5), Bath (1.0), Kenton (0.5), and Van Wert (0.5)

Ross cannot earn a home playoff game if they lose to Talawanda.

OUTLOOK: Ross-with-a-loss is definitely in a lot more perilous shape than Badin-with-a-loss.  Beat Talawanda, and then see if the Trotwood scenario plays out.  Maybe Santa Claus comes down the chimney and leaves an unexpected home game in your stocking.  But IF Talawanda should beat you, it may well come down to whether you can get Sidney to beat Greenville.  C-J will be heavy favorites to beat Alter, and vanquishing Goshen looks like a piece of cake, with so many options, many of whom are big favorites.  But the four-out-of seven combo if Greenville wins…Badin and Xenia are good bets.  Thurgood Marshall plays 1-8 Ponitz Tech.  But where does that 4th one come from?  Dixie?  Monroe?  Northwest?  Western Brown?  You’re going to need one of those.

MADISON MOHAWKS (5-4)

Madison cannot get a home game, no matter what happens in Week Ten.  Madison MUST beat Waynesville and then get help to grab a playoff spot.

For Madison to clinch a playoff berth, Madison needs to beat Waynesville and need to finish ahead of TWO of the following teams: Summit Country Day, Blanchester, Greenon

IF Madison beats Waynesville…

  • Madison hurdles Summit Country Day with a Summit Country Day loss –AND– by overcoming a 0.988 point deficit in second-level points.  (NOTE: because Summit Country Day only plays a 9-game schedule this year, with the Landmark Christian game not counting in the standings, and with Dohn Community playing only 7 games and CCD playing 9, all of Summit’s second-level points are worth 100/86’s of what Madison’s are.  That mathematical calculation has been made here in advance to save you the trouble.)
  • Madison overcomes this deficit with wins from Carlisle (5.0), Dixie (5.0), Reading (4.0), and Preble Shawnee (0.5)
  • Summit CD adds to their lead with wins from CCD (4.070), Clermont Northeastern (4.651), Dayton Christian (4.070), Dohn Community (5.814), Reading (4.651), and Purcell Marian (0.581)
  • Madison hurdles Blanchester with a Blanchester loss –OR– overcoming a 3 point deficit to Blanchester in second-level points
  • Madison overcomes this deficit with wins from Carlisle (5.0), Dixie (5.0), Reading (4.0), and Preble Shawnee (0.5)
  • Blanchester adds to their lead with wins from Taylor (4.5), Fayetteville (1.0), and Williamsburg (0.5)
  • Madison hurdles Greenon with a Greenon loss –OR– maintaining a 4 point lead over Greenon in second-level points
  • Madison adds to their lead with wins from Carlisle (5.0), Dixie (5.0), Reading (4.0), and Preble Shawnee (0.5)
  • Greenon cuts into the deficit with wins from Bradford (4.0), Springfield Northeastern (4.0), Springfield Shawnee (5.0), and Springfield Catholic Central (1.0)

OUTLOOK: The loss to Monroe last week didn’t kill Madison; it was only worth 5.0 points.  Harbin points reward you for who you beat, not punish you for who you lost to.  Madison knew all along they’d need the Waynesville game.  The Top 5 in the region are uncatchable.  The Madeira-Mariemont winner will also be uncatchable, though the loser will be bypassed.  The simplest path in is Madison win + Greenon loss + Blanchester loss, but both Greenon and Blanchester have slightly better records than their opponents.  Summit plays 8-1 Roger Bacon, and so a loss there is very possible.  Something tells me we’ll be counting second-level points deep into the night on this one.

NEW MIAMI VIKINGS (8-0)

New Miami has clinched a playoff berth and a home game.

New Miami clinches the #1 seed with a win over Lockland.

New Miami can still clinch the #1 seed with a loss, if they stay ahead of Fort Loramie, Marion Local, and New Bremen

IF New Miami loses to Lockland…

  • New Miami stays ahead of Fort Loramie with:
  • CCPA win + Bradford loss + Mississinawa Valley loss + St. Henry loss + Tri-Village loss + Covington loss + Twin Valley South loss
  • Fayetteville win + FOUR losses from Bradford, Mississinawa Valley, St. Henry, Tri-Vilage, and Twin Valley South
  • Fayetteville win + CCPA win + THREE losses from Bradford, Mississinawa Valley, St. Henry, and Tri-Village
  • Fayetteville win + St. Bernard-Elmwood Place win + THREE losses from Bradford, Mississinawa Valley, St. Henry, and Tri-Village
  • Fort Loramie loss + THREE losses from Bradford, Mississinawa Valley, St. Henry, and Tri-Village
  • New Miami stays ahead of Marion Local with a Marion Local loss.
  • New Miami stays ahead of New Bremen with any ONE of the following:
  • New Bremen loss
  • Allen East win
  • Anna win
  • CCPA win
  • Fayetteville win
  • St. Bernard-Elmwood Place win
  • Tri-Village win

OUTLOOK: If New Miami beats Lockland to clinch the #1 seed, New Miami should root for Marion Local to beat Coldwater IF the Vikings want to set up a bracket with Fort Loramie and Marion Local on the other side (#’s 2 and 3).  A Marion Local loss + CCPA win would put CCPA on the 3-line and place Marion Local in New Miami’s top half of the bracket.

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