Week 5 quickly approaches, and it is time to look closer at the playoff format for 2020, which will be very different than previous seasons.
All schools are eligible for the postseason, starting in Week Seven, and 664 schools have opted in, according to the OHSAA’s press release. The original press release can be found here: https://www.ohsaa.org/news-media/articles/ohsaa-announces-new-football-regions.
The Harbin ratings will not be used in official capacity to seed the teams into their brackets, but that doesn’t mean they don’t exist. Joe Eitel’s website still exists (www.joeeitel.com) and has the current Harbin rankings updated. The official seeding will be conducted according to a coaches vote on September 29-30. Coaches might still decide to consult the Harbin ratings as one possible data point to evaluate teams, especially in some of the regions that have Cincinnati, Dayton, and Columbus area schools jumbled together. Eitel’s website shows which teams are in which regions.
Because the coaches vote will take place before the Week Six games, only the games played in the first five weeks will be taken into account for seeding purposes. If your team pulls off a huge upset in Week Six, sorry, you’re out of luck! The OHSAA will release the official brackets on October 1, per the OHSAA press release.
The press release goes on to state that ALL regional games will take place on campus sites. Traditionally, the OHSAA would invoke neutral sites in the 2nd round, but not this year. The first neutral site game will be the state semifinals.
One goofy rule that has MUCH greater ramifications this playoff year is the determination of the home team. The OHSAA has always declared the top team on the bracket the home team. In a normal year, with an 8-team bracket, this means that when an 8-seed knocks off the 1-seed, the 8-seed would show up at the next week’s game wearing their dark jerseys, while the better seed (4 or 5) would be the “visiting team” and wear white. This has always looked strange to those of us who are used to the better seed always being the “home” team in every level of college and pro for every sport ever played, but this has never really had a significant impact on the OHSAA playoffs, since this “jersey swap” always took place on a neutral field. But not this year! Since the OHSAA is using campus sites throughout the regionals, a team that pulls an upset may very well end up hosting a better seed. For example, let’s say a 16-seed knocks off a 1-seed in a massive upset. The 16-seed would remain on the top of the bracket, following the path previously laid out for the 1-seed, and could potentially host THE NEXT THREE ROUNDS if they keep winning, despite the fact that they would be seeded lower than each and every one of their opponents. And according to this principle, the 2-seed would be guaranteed to host every one of their games except the regional final. And while we would expect the 2-seed to have to travel to the 1-seed for that game, the 2-seed would also be traveling to any other opponent that comes out of the top half of the bracket, should the 1-seed get upset along the way.
All brackets will be based on a 32-team bracket. None of the regions will have that many teams. So for every team that doesn’t exist, a first-round bye will be given. For example, a region with 27 teams will have the top 5 teams receiving a first-round bye. This will narrow each bracket down to 16 teams by Week Eight (the second round of the playoffs). Due to a couple of last-minute dropouts in Division I, only 64 teams remain. So the OHSAA re-shuffled a couple of schools around to balance out each of the four regions at 16 teams each. Thus, Division I will have one fewer round of playoffs than the other six divisions, and they will start in Week Seven with nobody having a bye. This will affect Middletown; more on this in the Division I write-up.
Just how the coaches vote will shake out is anybody’s guess. I can offer you an educated guess here, but it must be taken with a grain of salt. In previous years, I could speak much more definitively about the Harbin ratings, guided by straight-up math. But with all of the human subjectivity, networking, politicing, etc., I can only offer you a best guess here. The sample brackets provided are my own, but it is the exact format the OHSAA would use if they wanted to make sure that the better seed always stays on the top of the bracket to be the “home” team, should there be no upsets. I feel fairly confident that this is the format the OHSAA will choose to use.
With all of that said, let’s look closer at Division VII:
Division VII, Region 28 (Friday games)
Total Teams In the Bracket: 21
Teams Earning a First-Round Bye: 11
Butler County Teams: New Miami
Other Teams in the Bracket: Ansonia, Cedarville, Cincinnati College Prep, DeGraff Riverside, Fayetteville, Fort Loramie, Grove City Christian, Lockland, Manchester, Marion Local, Mississinawa Valley, New Bremen, Ridgemont, Saint Henry, Sidney Lehman Catholic, Southeastern Local, Tri-County North, Tri-Village, Troy Christian, Twin Valley South
Analysis: New Miami is currently ranked 4th in the Harbins, but the Vikings have only played two games, compared to most everybody else’s four. That will make it a little challenging for the coaches voting to know exactly where to put them. Add in the juxtaposition of New Miami having earned the 1-seed last year but losing convincingly to New Bremen in the playoffs, and again, there are strong arguments to be made for-or-against ranking them as high as you want.
New Bremen is currently 13th in the Harbins and are 2-2 with losses to Marion Local and Coldwater. Same story, different year.
Will the coaches rank New Bremen above New Miami, even though they’re nine spots behind them in the Harbins? It’s the same argument that Alter will be making in Division III.
Marion Local is sure to be voted the 1-seed and are the defending state champs, having appeared in the state championship game the last nine years running.
Fort Loramie is sure to garner lots of respect and probably slide in at the 2-seed. But given the limited schedule and the strong pro-and-con arguments with New Miami, I could see the Vikings landing as high as 3rd and as low as the 11-12 range.
Certainly, different coaches are going to look at the Vikings differently, and we’ll see where it all averages out to. But take a look at that bracket, and see what it means.
If New Miami gets seeded 3rd, 4th or 5th, the Vikings waiting for an opponent to come out of the first round and meet up with them in the Village on Oct. 16.
If New Miami gets seeded 6th, 7th or 8th, the Vikings also have a first-round bye and a home game in the Village, but with both teams knowing who they’re playing and having two weeks to prepare.
If New Miami gets seeded 9th, 10th or 11th, they still get the bye, but the Vikings start on the road.
And if New Miami gets seeded 12th, they would not get a bye, but would get to host a game, a week earlier on Oct. 9.
SAMPLE BRACKET
